IS为何选择恐怖袭击巴黎？因为巴黎贫穷郊区是伊斯兰极端分子的沃土，还是因为法国参加了空袭IS的行动？恐怖袭击是有意选择大众娱乐的地方（音乐厅，球场），还是随机选择？恐怖袭击是否因为法国安保部门失职？


Paris attacks: A new type of terrorism?

（BBC, 14 November, 2015）

By Laurence Peter
唐老雅 选注

With nearly 130 people dead, along with eight suicide bombers, it is Europe's worst terrorist attack（恐怖袭击）since the 2004 Madrid train bombings.

It raises new, pressing questions about the ability of Western security forces to prevent such random carnage（大屠杀）.

French President Francois Hollande called it an "act of war" organised by Islamic State (IS) militants.

Why did this happen in Paris?

Paris has been on heightened alert（加强戒备）since the January terror attacks, when Islamist gunmen attacked the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo, a policewoman and a Jewish supermarket, killing 17 people.

Amedy Coulibaly, who killed four hostages（人质）in the supermarket before being shot dead by police, claimed to be acting in the name of IS.

For many years some deprived（贫穷的）housing estates in the suburbs of Paris and other cities have been fertile（肥沃的）ground for Islamic extremists. （许多年来，巴黎及其他城市郊区一些贫穷的住房一直都是伊斯兰极端分子的沃土。）Jihad（“圣战”）has appeared seductive for some alienated young Muslims in areas of high unemployment and urban neglect.（在高失业无人问津的城市区域，“圣战”对一些被社会隔离的年轻穆斯林似乎很有吸引力。）

More than 500 French Muslims have gone to fight with jihadists in Syria and Iraq, experts say - more than from any other Western country.

French warplanes have repeatedly attacked IS fighters in Syria and Iraq, as part of the US-led campaign against the group.

What does the choice of targets suggest?

They were soft civilian targets in Paris - the intention was evidently to kill many people randomly（不加选择地）.

The high-profile football match at the Stade de France was clearly a potential target. But the fact that three suicide bombers blew themselves up nearby at three eating places was unusual. France has not experienced such near-simultaneous（同时的）bombings before.

Then the attack on Bataclan concert hall - again by suicide bombers - was also designed to kill ordinary young French people having fun on a Friday night. It happened during a rock concert. More than 80 rock fans died in the mayhem（骚乱；混乱）.
Some French commentators recalled the Moscow theatre siege（包围）of 2002, when Chechen militants stormed a live show. The attack and bungled Russian rescue left 130 hostages and 40 militants dead.

French journalist Agnes Poirier told the BBC that the 13 November bombers struck at "modest, working-class neighbourhoods, not tourist sites" in Paris.

The 10th and 11th districts (arrondissements) are "very diverse（多样化的） - that makes it more poignant（痛苦的，心酸的）for the French", she said.

Claiming responsibility for the carnage in Paris, IS said it was a "capital of abomination（憎恨） and perversion（变态）". It called the concert-goers "pagans"（异教徒）.

Shashank Joshi, a security policy expert at London's Royal United Services Institute, said there was clearly a "cultural" aspect to the choice of targets.

"It was a deliberate choice of leisure venues（地点）- where people relax," he told the BBC. The bombers went for crowded places, portrayed by IS as immoral, he said.

Was this like previous terror attacks in cities?

According to Mr Joshi, the closest parallel（平行的人或物）is the Mumbai (Bombay) attack of 2008, carried out by Pakistan-based Islamist militants.

They brought terror to the streets of Mumbai, staging simultaneous gun and bomb attacks across the city.

In Europe, the Paris carnage has reminded people of the devastating（灾难性的）train bombings in Madrid (2004) and London (2005), which were also carried out by Islamist militants.

Jews were targeted in some previous Islamist terror attacks - in Paris in January, in the attack on the Brussels Jewish Museum in 2014, and in the 2012 shootings by Toulouse gunman Mohamed Merah. He killed a rabbi and three small children at a Jewish school.

Anti-Semitic（反犹太的）attacks by jihadists are often linked to Arab hostility（敌意）towards Israel.

This new atrocity in Paris shows that the militants "have no single priority（优先）or hierarchy（体系）" when choosing targets, Mr Joshi said.

Pieter Van Ostaeyen, a Belgian expert on jihadist groups, said IS appeared to be "signalling that it can attack anytime, anywhere, and we cannot prevent it".

It was highly coordinated（协调的）and probably took months of training, he told the BBC.

There have been similar suicide attacks in Syria and Iraq, where militants have used up all their bullets, then blown themselves up in a crowd, he said. But never before in France.

But Mr Joshi said these were not necessarily Middle East war veterans, or weapons experts.

"They were prepared, yes, but they have not proven a high level of marksmanship - their preparation may have been quite basic."

Was it a French security blunder（错误）?

Neither Mr Joshi nor Mr Van Ostaeyen thinks so.

"You can't guard all soft targets," Mr Joshi said. "It's more about responding to events, having communications between the arms of the state, strong leadership, controlling the flow of information, to minimise（使最小化）panic."

According to Mr Van Ostaeyen: "France has done everything it could do... it's too early to say they could have prevented it".

A key question is whether IS managed to organise the attacks from outside France, or whether it was local French Islamists inspired（激励）by IS.


Vocabulary
Terrorist attack 恐怖袭击
Carnage 大屠杀
On heightened alert 加强戒备
Hostage 人质
Deprived 贫穷的
Fertile 肥沃的
Randomly 随机地
Simultaneous 同时的
Mayhem 骚乱；混乱
Siege 包围
Diverse 多样的
Poignant 痛苦的；心酸的
Abomination 憎恨；仇恨
Perversion 变态
Pagan 异教徒
Venue 地点
Parallel 平行的；平行的人或物
Devastating 灾难性的
Hostility 敌意
Priority 优先
Hierarchy 层级；架构；体系
Coordinated 协调一致的
Blunder 错误
Minimize 使最小化
Inspire 激励